War in Ukraine: Day 71
By Ashwin Dhanabalan, Rishma Banerjee, and Emmanuel Royan

War on the ground:
Zelenskyy’s address
On 05 May, president Zelenskyy created a worldwide crowdfunding portal United24 to assist Kyiv in the conflict with Russia and rebuild the country's infrastructure. He said that the first step was to raise funds and other projects or programs will be added soon. All funds will be transferred to Ukraine's national bank and distributed to the necessary ministries. He vowed that the administration would also provide a report on the expenditure every 24 hours. Apart from this, Zelenskyy also met the 43rd US president, George W. Bush. Where both exchanged on the state of Ukrainians and their courage in the war. Bush also re-iterated the support of the US for Ukraine.

In his evening speech, president Zelenskyy addressed the participants of the Brave Ukraine charity event and mentioned that Russia's invasion of Ukraine has destroyed hundreds of hospitals and other facilities, leaving physicians without medications or the equipment to perform surgery. Zelenskyy also addressed the high-level International Donors’ Conference hosted by Warsaw for Ukraine. He emphasized the need for Ukraine to obtain EU membership amid the war through a special procedure. He further expressed gratitude to all the participants of the conference for creating a support plan similar to the historic Marshall Plan.

Also on 05 May, president Zelenskyy reported the death of a popular television reporter. Oleksandr Makhov, who volunteered for war was found killed in the battles near Izium. Zelenskyy also confirmed the evacuation of 344 people from Mariupol and its suburbs to Zaporizhzhya in the second operation.

On 05 May, Zelenskyy awarded seven employees of the National Anticorruption Bureau of Ukraine (NABU) for showcasing courage, selfless action, territorial integrity, and exuberant performance of their duties. It was reported that the activities carried out by the NABU detectives had helped to save many warriors from being killed in the Kyiv attacks. According to Zelenskyy: “I am grateful and have the great honour to greet real Ukrainians today, real heroes of our state.”

Kyiv
On 05 May, the political advisor to president Olesiy Arestovych, stated that Ukraine is unlikely to initiate a counter-offensive in its war with Russia before mid-June, when it expects to have received additional weaponry from its allies. On the same day, foreign minister Dmytro Kuleba said if any European country opposes the embargo on Russian oil, it will be accused of complicity in crimes committed by Russia in Ukraine.

Mariupol
On 05 May, several civilians remain trapped under the Azovstal steel plant that has been rattled by explosions as Russian forces pressed for the last stronghold in Mariupol. President of Russia Vladimir Putin stated that they were willing to guarantee safe passage for people, but reiterated demands for the Ukrainian military on the ground to disarm.

On the same day, the UN secretary-general Antonio Guterres informed the Security Council that a third evacuation operation with the Red Cross was underway to remove civilians from Mariupol.

A special report by Reuters
On 05 May, Reuters released a special report titled “The Bucha Brigades” investigating the remnants of Russia's hurried withdrawal from Bucha and discovered crucial clues to the identity of specific Russian soldiers and military units involved throughout the brutal takeover. A paratrooper named Aleksandr Logvinenko was tracked down owing to a love letter discovered amid the rubble. Journalists spent three weeks in Bucha interviewing over 90 individuals, analyzing photographic and video evidence shared by the villagers, and examining Russian records left behind. For the first time, numerous information regarding the military troops and the line of command was revealed in the report.

The Moscow view:
Claims by Russia
Putin’s call with Israel’s prime minister
On 05 May, President Putin held a phone call with Israel’s prime minister, Naftali Bennett. The leaders discussed ‌developing bilateral ties and developing mutual relations. During the discussion on the humanitarian issue, Putin guaranteed Bennet to provide a free passage to the civilians seeking evacuation from the port of Mariupol. Both the leaders recalled the memories of 09 May 1945, Putin highlighted the Nazi killings of 40 per cent of the Soviet people and wished for the wellness of “war veterans” in Israel.

Defence ministry’s update
On 04 May, the defence ministry said that they had successfully hit several Ukrainian positions, through their artillery strikes and killed over 600 Ukrainian soldiers. They also reported that 61 units of military equipment and weapons have been destroyed. Along with that, the Russian missiles have also struck aviation equipment at the Kanatovo airfield along with a large ammunition depot.

Russia’s stance on Mariupol
On 05 May, amidst reports of continuous attacks on the Azovstal steel plant in Mariupol, Kremlin said that the humanitarian corridors were operating there. They denied the claims of increased aggression and referred to president Putin’s earlier orders to not storm the plant. 

Roadblock in negotiations with Ukraine
On 05 May, as per a TASS report, Leonid Slutsky, a Russian negotiator, and lawmaker, taking part in talks with Ukraine said that Kyiv was “rolling back” on their agreements. He said that this was making it difficult to conduct negotiations.

Allegations against NATO countries
Kremlin alleged that the United States, the UK, and the other NATO countries were helping Ukraine by ‘constantly’ providing them with information. They said that it was this information that had enabled Ukraine to kill 12 Russian generals. Dmitry Peskov spoke about this and referred to the supply of weapons to Ukraine as well. About the weapons, he said these: “do not contribute to the quick completion of the (Russian) operation, but at the same time are not capable of hindering the achievement of the goals set”. Peskov also dismissed the speculation that they were planning something even more aggressive in Ukraine, to commemorate Victory Day on 09 May. 

Russia takes steps against Denmark
On 05 May, Russia said that they have declared seven employees in the Danish embassy to be 'persona non grata'. The foreign ministry said that since Denmark had opted to go along with their anti-Russian policies, a similar response was obvious from Moscow as well. Denmark’s foreign ministry further confirmed that they have been informed about this decision and said that it was a “completely unjustified and deeply problematic decision.”

The West View:
Responses from the US and Europe

The US
On 05 May, US first lady Jill Biden announced her plans to visit Romania and Slovakia to highlight Washington’s commitment to Ukraine and to extend her support to the women suffering due to the war in Ukraine. She would be meeting US service members and embassy personnel along with Ukrainian parents, children, aid workers, and teachers during her visit.

On the same day, the US mentioned that it had provided intel to Ukraine that helped it target Russian warships more effectively. The intel is speculated to have helped Ukraine target Russia’s Moskva. 

The UK
On 05 May, UK’s prime minister Boris Johnson spoke to Ukraine’s president Volodymyr Zelenskyy on the supply of arms and ammunition. Johnson discussed a possible supply of longer-range weaponry to Ukraine’s armed forces by the UK. A spokesperson said the two leaders also discussed the “provision of longer-range weaponry to prevent the bombardment of civilians.” 

On the same day, the UK said it would provide GBP 45 million to help the vulnerable in Ukraine. This brought the UK’s total GBP 220 million to an end as the package was dispersed between UN agencies and charities delivering vital aid. 

Hungary 
On 05 May, Hungary mentioned that the new sanctions by the EU on Russia would harm Budapest more than Moscow. Hungary’s prime minister wrote a letter to EU’s commission president Ursula Von Der Leyen stating Hungary’s concerns about the sanctions. Budapest depends on Russia for more than half its crude oil and oil products imports. 

France 
On 05 May, France announced that it would increase its overall financial aid to Ukraine to about USD two billion. France’s president Emmanuel Macron further called out the international community to renew their support to Ukraine to help it build civilian infrastructure.

Italy
On 05 May, Italy’s parliamentary panel opened an investigation into the disinformation shared on television. The parliamentary committee for the security of the republic summoned the head of the state TV network. The panel stated it was looking into foreign interference and disinformation activity with particular reference to the war in Ukraine. Italy’s public broadcaster RAI regularly hosts Russian journalists. 

Turkey 
On 05 May, Turkey’s president Tayyip Erdogan spoke to Macron on a call and discussed the war in Ukraine. Erdogan’s office released a statement saying that Turkey was doing everything it could to end the war through diplomacy. Erdogan also congratulated Macron for being re-elected as the president of France. 

The EU
On 05 May, the EU’s aviation safety agency (EASA) warned of increased risks to airlines due to the ongoing war in Ukraine. The agency said there was also an increased risk of cyberattacks. In addition, civilian airlines and airports were at high risk of potential spill overs from the conflict. 

NATO
On 05 May, NATO’s secretary-general Jens Stoltenberg mentioned that the bloc would increase its presence around Sweden’s borders and in the Baltic Sea as the country’s application to join NATO is processed. Sweden and Finland have been seeking military protection assurances from NATO. Stoltenberg said: “I am convinced that we will find solutions for the security needs Sweden will have in a transitional period.” 

The global fallouts:
International implications of the Ukraine war
Iran
On 05 May, an analysis by Reuters mentioned how officials in Iran were in no rush to revive the 2015 JCPOA agreement as they saw it as an opportunity to increase revenues from exporting oil. The war in Ukraine and the destabilized energy prices opened a window of opportunities for Urban to provide more substantial leverage to negotiators whenever the talks are resumed. 

Israel
On 05 May, Israel stated that Putin apologized for Russia’s foreign minister’s remarks claiming that Hitler had Jewish origins. Israel’s prime minister Naftali Bennett said Putin had apologized on the phone. Putin also assured Israel that he would create a safe passage for civilians from the besieged Azovstal steelworks plant. 

Japan
On 05 May, Japan’s prime minister Fumio Kishida warned that the situation in Taiwan could be replicated in East Asia if leading powers do not maintain peace and stability in the Taiwan Strait. Kishida commented on this as he spoke to Johnson and added: “Peace and stability in the Taiwan Strait are critical not only for Japan’s security but also for the stability of international society.” 

On the same day, Kishida mentioned that Japan would use nuclear reactors and energy to reduce its dependence on Russian energy. Japan became more reliant on Russia after the 2011 Fukushima disaster that triggered a meltdown in the north-eastern region. Kishida added: “We will utilize nuclear reactors with safety assurances to contribute to the worldwide reduction of dependence on Russian energy.”

Fiji
On 05 May, authorities in Fiji seized a USD 300 million yacht of Russian oligarch Suleiman Kerimov. The authorities acted on a request by the US justice department as Washington has been pressing its allies to impose sanctions and restrictions on Russia. The Fiji court ruled in favor of the US and agreed to hand over the superyacht.  

WHO
On 05 May, the World Health Organization stated that it would consider holding a resolution against Russia next week. The organization plans to close its regional office in Moscow. The move is seen as a political step to isolate Moscow further. 

The UN
On 05 May, the UN said it would continue trying to evacuate Ukrainian civilians from Mariupol. The authorities said a third operation was going on to evacuate civilians from the city and the steel plant. The UN and the International Committee of the Red Cross (ICRC) have successfully helped 500 civilians flee the areas. 

On the same day, the UN also found 188 abductions being carried out by Russian troops. High Commissioner for Human Rights Michelle Bachelet said: As of 04 May, my office has documented 180 such cases, of which five victims were eventually found dead.” 

Shell
On 05 May, Shell reported that it was able to increase its quarterly profits due to the high demand for oil and gas across the globe. Shell had withdrawn from Russia following Moscow’s invasion of Ukraine, which costed the company USD 3.9 billion. But, it was still able to triple its profits to USD 3.2 billion in the last quarter due to the ongoing war and the increasing demand for oil and gas. 

References:
“Remembering the victory over Nazism means never really allowing what the Nazis inflicted on Europe again - President Volodymyr Zelenskyy's address,”  President of Ukraine, 05 May 2022
“Speech by President Volodymyr Zelenskyy at the High-Level International Donors' Conference in Support of Ukraine in Warsaw,” President of Ukraine, 05 May 2022
“President of Ukraine held an online meeting with the 43rd President of the United States George W. Bush,” President of Ukraine, 05 May 2022
“President awarded NABU employees who distinguished themselves in the fight against the Russian occupiers,” President of Ukraine, 05 May 2022
"Zelensky launches crowdfunding platform to help win war,” Kyiv Post, 05 May 2022
“Address by President Volodymyr Zelenskyy to the participants of the Brave Ukraine Charity Event, the people of Great Britain and the people of Ukraine,” President of Ukraine, 05 May 2022
Alessandra Prentice and Natalia Zinets, “Battles rage at Ukrainian plant as UN rushes to evacuate civilians,” Reuters, 06 May 2022
“No Ukrainian counter-offensive expected before mid-June, presidential adviser says,” Reuters, 05 May 2022
Mari Saito, “Love letter, ID card point to Russian units that terrorised Bucha,” Reuters, 05 May 2022
“Telephone conversation with Prime Minister of Israel Naftali Bennett,” Kremlin.ru, 05 May 2022
“Russia still ready to provide safe passage from Azovstal, Putin tells Israel's Bennett,” Reuters, 05 May 2022
“Russia says Western intelligence to Ukraine won't thwart its goals,” Reuters, 05 May 2022
“Russian negotiator accuses Kyiv of 'rolling back' on agreements -TASS,” Reuters, 05 May 2022
“Russia killed over 600 Ukrainian fighters in artillery strikes - defence ministry,” Reuters, 05 May 2022
“Russia expels Danish diplomats in retaliatory move,” Reuters, 05 May 2022
“Ukraine war: Russia denies it plans to declare war on 9 May,” The Guardian, 05 May 2022
Gavin Jones, “Italy launches security probe as tempers fray over Russians on TV,” Reuters, 05 May 2022 
“EU regulator says risk of civil planes being accidentally targeted in Ukraine war,” Reuters, 05 May 2022 
“Jill Biden will meet Ukrainian refugees in Romania, Slovakia on Mother's Day,” Reuters, 05 May 2022 
“France will increase financial aid to Ukraine by $300 mln, Macron tells donor conference,” Reuters, 05 May 2022 
“UK's Johnson, Ukraine's Zelenskiy discussed provision of longer-range weapons - Downing Street,” Reuters, 05 May 2022 
"NATO chief says alliance will increase presence in Baltic sea if Sweden applies - SVT,” Reuters, 05 May 2022 
“Turkey's Erdogan, France's Macron discuss Ukraine in phone call,” Reuters, 05 May 2022 
“Orban says new EU sanctions against Russia would harm Hungary more -report,” Reuters, 05 May 2022
Muvija M and Tommy Wilkes, “Japan to use nuclear to cut dependence on Russian energy -PM Kishida,” Reuters, 05 May 2022
“Ukraine plight could be replicated in East Asia, Japan's Kishida warns,” Reuters, 05 May 2022
Tuvan Gumrukcu and Jonathan Spicer, “Analysis-War a lost opportunity for Turkey's westward outreach,” Reuters, 05 May 2022 
Parisa Hafezi, ”Analysis: Exclusive: Rising oil prices buy Iran time in nuclear talks, officials say,” Reuters, 05 May 2022 
Emma Farge and Francesco Guarascio, “Exclusive-WHO members to consider shutting Europe hub office in Russia over Ukraine - document,” Reuters, 05 May 2022 
Tom Espiner, “Shell profits nearly triple as oil prices surge,” BBC, 06 May 2022 “Israel says Putin apologised for foreign minister's Hitler remarks,” Reuters, 05 May 2022 
Michelle Nichols, “U.N. again trying to evacuate civilians from Ukraine's Mariupol,” Reuters, 05 May 2022
"Fiji seizes $300 mln yacht of Russian oligarch Suleiman Kerimov on U.S. request,” Reuters, 05 May 2022

IN BRIEF
By Sai Pranav

SWITZERLAND
Half a ton of cocaine was seized in a Nespresso factory
On 06 May, 500 kilograms of cocaine were confiscated by the Swiss police from a shipment of coffee that was sent to a Nespresso factory. Labourers of the plant in Romont found white powder in the sacks of coffee beans and immediately notified the authorities. Police later found cocaine in five more containers. After the initial investigation, it was discovered that the shipment had come from Brazil. The company reassured us that none of the coffee was contaminated and was safe for consumption. The estimated street value of the cocaine was expected to be close to 80 per cent purity worth EUR 50 million. The police traced that the cocaine was prepared to be sent into European markets. (“Cocaine found in coffee sent to Nespresso plant,” BBC News, 06 May 2022)

THE NETHERLANDS
Protest to be held against overturning of US abortion law in Amsterdam
On 05 May, a solidarity protest was announced to be conducted in support of the abortion law at Dam Square in Amsterdam. The demonstration is scheduled to be conducted on 07 May, which will be carried out by many human rights groups and organizations. The message of the protest is to fight for the right to abortion which is at stake in the US. Around 1000 protesters are expected to participate at Dam Square. Earlier, thousands of people protested against the draft by the supreme court which abolished federal law of abortion in the US. (“Solidarity protest for right to abortion in Amsterdam Saturday,” NL Times, 05 May 2022)

THE UK
Bank of England predicts inflations this year
On 05 May, the Bank of England (BOE) forecasted double-digit inflation and a possibility of a recession in the UK. There might also be a prolonged period of stagnation according to the central bank which gave the most sombre prediction out of any major central bank this year. The interest rate would be boosted to the highest since 2009 which triggered a drop in government bonds. Policymakers are trying to contain the inflation that would be the worst in three years and is focusing on the recovery from the COVID-19 pandemic. Low-income citizens may face hardships and the prices of goods may go up, especially the energy price. The annual GDP is expected to shrink by 0.25 per cent. Rising interest rates would alarm the common household but could keep inflation in check. (Philip Aldrick and David Goodman, “BOE Sees Risk of U.K. Recession With Inflation Above 10%,” Bloomberg, 05 May 2022)

INTERNATIONAL
UK and Japan form a defence partnership for the first time
On 05 May, UK prime minister Boris Johnson met with Japan's prime minister Fumio Kishida in Downey Street to sign a defensive partnership. Japan also condemns the Russian invasion and sides with the western nations in support of Ukraine. They had talked about joint exercises and increasing relationships with regard to disaster relief. The agreement also follows the UK government's defence and foreign policy integrated review, which was published in 2021. It looks into the Indo-Pacific region, apart from this UK and Japan are considering reducing the dependency on Russian oil and gas and aim to utilize Japan's nuclear reactors. They also plan to create highly skilled jobs and ensure they are technologically superior. This is the first time that prime minister Kishida is visiting the UK after being elected in October 2021. (“UK and Japan sign military agreement amid Russia concerns,” BBC News, 05 May 2022)

NATO to consider Sweden’s application
On 05 May, NATO is looking forward to increasing its presence in the Baltic region. Sweden and Finland are considering joining the alliance after the Russian invasion of Ukraine in 2014 and 2022 even though prior to that they stayed outside NATO. Both countries are seeking military security assurances from NATO. The process for them to join NATO would take them a year. NATO is highly obligated to guarantee Sweden's security if it plans to join the alliance. Russia had already warned both the countries of using of nuclear weapons if Sweden and Finland joined the alliance. The US has also promised Sweden's security for the application period but there was no concrete security guarantee. (Johan Ahlander, “NATO chief says alliance will increase presence in Baltic sea if Sweden applies - SVT,” Reuters, 05 May 2022)